China and Hong Kong, in different ways, are both fretting over the prospect of an ageing population and how that will impact on the cost of healthcare and productivity.
Various indicators, however, are suggesting that the problem lies elsewhere: the population may not live to impose a long-term health burden; instead, the burden and impact on productivity will come much sooner than the governments think, in the medium term.
The shift to a high-protein, western diet has given rise to a population with a health profile that is much inferior to that of previous generations. This is documented in the book Fat China: How Expanding Waistlines Are Changing a Nation, by Paul French and Matthew Crabbe (Anthem Press, 2010). In Hong Kong the shift was made earlier and the impact is getting worse: heart attacks are becoming common among the middle-aged and more young people have become obese.
A population on such a diet is unlikely to live to a ripe old age; instead, they are likely to require treatment for diabetes, heart disease, cancer and other diseases from a young age – if they can still be treated in ten years’ time: the World Health Organisation has warned of humanity’s impending loss of the battle against bacteria, which would render most surgeries impossible due to the risk of life-threatening infections.
The irony of course is that part of the strategy for pushing up the GDP, which has nothing to do with our quality of life; is to encourage a poor diet. Many multinational fast food companies are targeting the China market to boost revenue as their domestic market in the US stagnate. At the same time, local food companies that run fast food chains or produce junk food from cup noodles to sugary drinks are falling over each other to list on stock markets and expand.
This is all good news for the pharmaceutical companies that make drugs for treating such lifestyle diseases, but their profit is society’s loss, in the form of reduced productivity and compromised health, not to mention the mental, physical and emotional burden imposed on carers.
Simply encouraging exercise and healthy menus is like encouraging smokers to quit, without raising taxes or instituting a ban on smoking in public places: it just doesn’t work. A tax on junk food is the bare minimum the government should consider. At the very least, this would place the cost of treating diet-related ailments on those responsible for causing them, and reduce the burden on the public purse.

